Recession by Republican Design
For Montana there can be no other explanation
Yesterday, one of the most respected economists in the Western U.S. stood on a stage in Montana and stunned the audience of several hundred, mostly Republican business leaders, when he likened the threats from current GOP economic policies to a horror movie where we are waiting to “get whacked.”
I was in the audience at Glacier Bank’s annual economic roundtable, a tradition for a local bank that has grown into a serious player in the West's economy. Glacier Bank began with a single Kalispell location in 1955 and is now a large publicly traded company (stock symbol GBCI) and one of the largest banks in the Rocky Mountain West, with 155 locations and more than $28 billion in assets.1
Many years ago, this roundtable event was just a small-town get-together, an excuse to share a beer with friends, but it's now a serious forecasting event with serious people doing the forecasting. Yesterday the expert on stage was economist and Montana resident Dr. Bryce Ward. Ward is energetic, engaging, and self-deprecating. You might say, “He gives good PowerPoint,” but Bryce is also a no-bullshit, smart-as-a-whip economist with a PhD from Harvard. He has taught at four universities (including Harvard), is well-published, and is known to have an accurate pulse on the realities of the Montana economy.2
Ward’s presentation went on for about an hour and elicited a lot of silence. He did his best to insert some humor, but the meat of his presentation was not at all funny. As he explained the metrics of our economy and the current threats to it, most of which are manufactured by current Republican policy, it seemed inescapable that economic recession must be the actual goal of Republican policy.
As you would expect from a good economist, Bryce just provided facts. He avoided accusatory partisan statements, or making the connections directly, but no one could avoid the fact that every dangerous policy choice he highlighted has a single source and seems directly aimed at creating recession, especially in Montana.
Below is a list of the economic realities presented by Dr. Ward, followed by actual MAGA policy threats and then GOP social celebrations from current Montana elected officials:
REALITY: The Western Montana economy revolves around public lands and tourism.3 As Ward reminded the crowd, nearly 32% of jobs here are directly tied to tourism and construction, and most of that building activity is directly linked to affinity for public lands.
REALITY, as of January 1, there were 1,500 federal employees who live in Western Montana and are important parts of our community. They are baseball coaches, parents, consumers, and friends.4 As of 2023, their wages were about $126 million. Perhaps more importantly, these people manage our most important public lands assets: Glacier National Park, the Bob Marshall Wilderness, millions of acres of USFS land, thousands of miles of rivers, hundreds of lakes, campgrounds, roads, trails, toilets, and fire crews.
REALITY, Montana is extremely reliant on federal spending. As compared to other states, we have a very high percentage of retirees and residents whose income relies on federal programs.5 Our health care system is all designated as rural, meaning Medicaid funding is critical. We have one of the highest percentages of veterans at 9%, and they are reliant on the VA which is federally funded. Ward reminded us that this means Montana will be damaged much more by federal cuts than we would benefit from any tax breaks.
REALITY: Perhaps most likely to immediately trigger a recession in Montana are the GOP tariffs that seem as if they are directly aimed at crashing our economy.6 Almost all of our imports come from Canada and there are dozens of examples of how this will harm the economy. Just consider one - Canadian lumber is critical to our construction economy and housing prices as a percentage of income are already one of the highest in the nation (average rent here is a whopping 31% of renter income.7 A percentage that Ward says is far too high.) If we want a stable workforce, we can’t take any more expense.
After the event, I found Bryce in the lobby and thanked him. As we chatted, we tried to laugh off the serious nature of the threats. But as I quizzed him about his level of concern, he expressed very serious worry about the ways public lands are being attacked, and told me that the resulting long-term risks to that most-central part of our economic engine are severe.
I then asked Ward what he thought the risks of a recession were before the election last year; “I would have said they were almost zero,” he quickly snapped.
“And what do you think the actual risk is now?” I asked. Ward paused and considered his answer, “At least 50/50, and it's getting worse by the day.”
https://www.glacierbancorp.com/
https://www.abmjconsulting.com/bryce
https://dailyinterlake.com/news/2024/sep/03/report-visitors-spent-716m-in-montana-communities-near-national-parks/
https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R47716
https://usafacts.org/answers/how-much-money-does-the-federal-government-provide-state-and-local-governments/state/montana/
https://flatheadbeacon.com/2025/03/05/tariffs-to-have-broad-impacts-on-northwest-montana-industries/
https://montanabudget.org/report/rental_affordability_2024
How do we convince the republican-controlled MT legislature of these economic forecasts?
Great reporting,,, Don’t Stop‼️