Midterms or Shock Troops in 2026?
Will Americans Get the Chance to Render Judgement on Trump 2.0?
“When do we get to use the guns?” The question hung in the air just long enough for some in the crowd to begin cheering. “That’s not a joke,” the man added.” How many elections are they gonna steal before we kill these people?”1
The question, which arose before the 2022 midterms during Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA event in Boise, made it clear that this man and others like him are waiting for the signal. As we look forward to our chance to judge Trump 2.0 in the 2026 midterms, that man’s question seems extremely relevant.
I’ve met men like this before. I worked in the firearms industry as a sales executive, and beginning during the Obama presidency, gun business leaders like me, who helped build the nation’s top gun companies, noticed a rapid increase in this disturbing chatter from gun owners at firearms trade shows. Most in the industry dismissed these threats. I didn’t. But I never thought we would end up here.
I’m hardly an anti-gun snowflake. Like most Montanans, I own many guns. I began shooting and hunting with my father as a young boy, and I enjoy doing the same activities with my two boys. I believe in our constitutional rights and am proud of my career helping build a respected gun company.
I also believe in the necessity of responsibility and warn that armed extremists are a real threat to the 2026 midterms.
***
It’s tempting to wish these people away. It’s a big country and there will always be malcontents and criminals. If you wanted to see the glass as half full, you could say that some elected Republicans denounced the January 6 political violence or we avoided election violence in 2024. But, let’s be honest, that’s only true because Trump won, and any Republican disavowal of J6 quickly evaporated. Worse, on Trump’s first day in office, he pardoned 1,500 convicted criminals, many of them violent, and his DOJ has argued the pardons should apply to gun charges related to the insurrection.2 The pardons are nothing less than a presidential-level preapproval for future political violence.
The glass-half-empty view seems pretty convincing. America contains a lot of men who prepare, even fantasize about killing political enemies, men like that fellow in Idaho. They have been groomed by MAGA acolytes such as Kirk, Steve Bannon, and Dan Bongino. They have also been developed as avatar customers by some in the gun industry, and it seems increasingly unlikely that our top national law enforcement agencies will hold them to account for crimes as long as they benefit Trump.
Bongino, now number two at the FBI, is an incendiary podcaster who got his start at NRA-TV.3 His boss, FBI director Kash Patel, an extremist hero steeped in election denialism, has promised to dramatically weaken the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (BATF), the federal agency in charge of enforcing America’s gun laws. Bongino has lobbed thousands of conspiratorial attacks, including telling his audience that Democrats are made of “demon energy.” He also repeatedly claimed the FBI orchestrated the J6 insurrection and instructed armed MAGA to “respond in kind” to the actions of Democrats. Bongino’s podcast followers know exactly what he means. “Bring that nonsense to country folks who literally sit in wait for days to pull a trigger,” one wrote after a Bongino rant.4
What non-gun owners should understand is that these men are not your average gun-owning Americans. They are dangerous people who were sucked into a cult where it is normal to organize your entire culture around preparation for domestic war. Some even make it official by claiming Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, or Three Percenters membership. Each is a national paramilitary terror org composed of (mostly) men motivated by varying degrees of anger, conspiracy, and racism. All played central roles in J6 and incorporated guns in their logos and ideologies.
I’m sure it won’t happen in 2026, but during the 2024 election, federal law enforcement agencies warned of the extensive threats posed by these people.5 Three Percenters (AP3) traveled from North Carolina in one case, deploying in full-armed battle gear around Arizona ballot sites. A person who infiltrated this group and leaked their texts explained the breadth and intent of the AP3 operations: “In fact, they were part of highly organized groups who intended to influence the election through intimidation.”6
Sadly, especially for me, some gun companies are using their marketing to glorify these men and press them even further into action.
We all know advertising works. Consider the 2018 Spike’s tactical ad campaign, hoping an armed conflict in American cities would boost sales. I was not surprised when, two years later, Kyle Rittenhouse, who killed two people during unrest in Kenosha, WI, acted out the scene in frightening precision, right down to the backward ball cap.
Of course, the right viewed Rittenhouse not as a cautionary tale but as a hero. Conservative media personalities celebrated that he had “a couple of pelts on the wall” and was “gonna have to fight off conservative chicks with a bat.”7 Aspiring vigilantes everywhere fawned over Trump’s open, well-documented embrace of Rittenhouse.8
***
Elon Musk has offered his instruction, too. Musk, a man who in 2022 stated, “Assault rifles should at minimum require a special permit, where the recipient is extremely well vetted, imo,” shifted to a more politically opportunistic position. About a year later, as he prepared to spend millions on the election, he posted a video of himself firing a $10,000 .50cal sniper rifle. The gun in that video fires a bullet that would shred a Cyber Truck, is designed to kill enemies at ranges of up to a mile, produces very high recoil, and is certainly not designed to be used in a weird scene reminiscent of rampaging John Rambo. In fact, I don’t think any credible firearms instructor would “vet” a novice who makes a show of firing that gun from the hip, as Musk did in the video. But Musk knew what he was doing; it’s just the sort of wink-wink-approval online extremists hope for.9
There was a time when very few Americans tolerated vigilantes—they would have used Kyle Rittenhouse to scare young people into being responsible with firearms. They would have labeled Musk a weirdo. But there was also a time—not long ago—when self-appointed militiamen who believed in QAnon conspiracies weren’t celebrated, pardoned, and appointed to lead the FBI either.
Trump advisor Steve Bannon famously boasted about developing more than 20,000 “shock troops” to deploy in an election like 2026. We’ve seen these troops in action in isolated incidents since 2016 and collectively on January 6. Federal law enforcement agencies that might prevent this from happening again are being DOGEd.
Back to the glass half full for a moment. Millions of gun owners know how dangerous this is. Like me, they use guns responsibly and care about democracy. Our voices could make a big difference, and we must speak up.
It needs to happen quickly because an inflection point is coming in November of 2026. We’ve read the reports from their think tanks planning for violence. They're now waiting, asking, “When do we use the guns?” The 2026 warning lights are flashing bright red.
These people have already shown us who they are, It would be foolish not to believe them.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/10/27/when-do-we-get-use-guns-ongoing-danger-false-fraud-claims/
https://www.npr.org/2025/03/03/nx-s1-5308020/dan-bongino-trump-fbi-director-conspiracies-podcast
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/technology/viral-misinformation-violence-election.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/election-threats-rcna177274
https://azmirror.com/2024/10/17/leaked-chats-reveal-right-wing-militias-coordinated-efforts-to-watch-az-ballot-boxes/
https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-far-right-gives-jake-gardner-the-kyle-rittenhouse-hero-treatment/
https://www.yahoo.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-trump-mar-a-lago-photo-tucker-carlson-184207390.html
They also like to slaughter wolves. Look at the bills that Rep. Fielder is introducing (11 in total) in the 2025 MT legislature focused on anything but fair chase to eradicate wolves from the landscape. Meanwhile Chronic Wasting Disease has made it to MT and knocking at the door of Yellowstone National Park due to elk feedlots in Idaho and Wyoming where CWD is rampant. Wolves can help cull infected ungulates.
Thank you, Ryan, for saying the quiet part out loud. 🙏
They’ve been hellbent on a civil war for close to a decade, and especially after the 2020 election.
I’ve been trying to tell others this for over eight years, only to be told I’m an alarmist, that I live in fear. Quite the contrary, I reject fear by trying to stay on top of fearful things and help be the change, be prepared, somehow.
I wholeheartedly agree with you that responsible gun owners are likely our last and biggest defense, especially given the lack of gun control in the past and the current political climate and lack of spine.
It’s SO inspiring to hear you speak candidly about this, and hopefully others too, who are greatly respected and in a position of being able to reach out to the masses to underscore the gravity of this likely situation, so we can begin to take action and make a difference.
Unfortunately, it’s not just about possible gun violence during our elections; it’s also deeply affecting our schools and public places.
I genuinely hope we get to see many more like-minded people such as yourself, running for offices across our nation in the very near future.
Thank you again, Ryan, for giving us hope.