Gravity Pulls Down on Red Hats Too

I started predicting “wheels coming off the MAGA bus” almost 10 years ago. Perhaps you, too, anticipated those same come-to-Jesus moments after John McCain was insulted, or after the President of the United States recommended tipping back Clorox cocktails on live TV, or when a mob led by domestic terrorists descended on the capital. Up until now, I’ve been wrong because each time I thought it was about to happen, I soon signed in disappointment as I examined a poll that accurately indicated the laws of gravity were not impacting MAGA the way I thought they would.

But FINALLY…I think we are approaching the moment of truth, and all it took was 100 days of unfiltered MAGA. I just saw a presentation on a new Navigator poll and focus groups conducted by some of the best polling professionals in the U.S., and it absolutely floored me. Here’s the topline: Gravity is real, and it’s finally got a grip on MAGA.

First, a bit about the structure of the Navigator data: their poll was “in the field” from April 24-28 to measure the impact of the first 100 days of Trump 2.0. It sampled 1000 people, which means it is not cheap and is likely to be quite accurate. It was conducted by seasoned professionals from GSG and GBA, both highly respected firms. It also included focus groups of Trump voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. I can vouch for this one because I know some of these pollsters. They are straight shooters, especially when the news is hard to take.

I’ll link the entire poll below in case you are a poli-geek like me, but here are the most important takeaways.

1. Trump’s tariffs and the resulting economic uncertainty have people rightfully freaked out about the economy. Perhaps you see Trump as a guy who paid celebrities to get fired in a made-up TV boardroom and set the world record for bankrupting Casinos. Still, voters essentially bought his economic competency schtick. And so, a wound to him on the economy is potentially severe. Much like Joe Biden, who suffered an irreparable polling hit to his core competency after the botched Afghan withdrawal, economic failure under Trump undermines his central tenet of support. Biden never recovered.

   Trump is at 44% approval in this poll, down 12 points in just three months, which aligns with other polls, such as the NYT/Siena poll, which has him at 42%. His economic approval rating is at only 40%, and that’s a significant for reasons I discuss below.

2. For the first time, a significant number (11%) of Trump voters now regret their vote. For people like me, who have been seeking changes in thin slices of percentages for years, this is stunning.

3. Remember how bad we all felt about the economy during the COVID pandemic? Well, voters today think Trump’s economy is significantly worse, with his net approval rating on the economy at -16, or 7% worse than it was in August 2020. And note the steady decline of that second term line — it’s diving into the ‘oh-shit’ portion of the Trump-Tariff lake, with most economists believing we are headed for real economic pain, and many predicting empty shelves in major retailers. If you happen to be a GOP House campaign staffer lurking here, this is where you grab the bottle of vodka and start chugging. The midterms are coming, buddy.

Of course, Trump senses the same potential disaster, so he’s doing what any 15-year-old high school kid would do when the teacher asks about the homework. "Umm, the dog ate it.” That’s why he posted on social media yesterday, blaming Biden for his economic woes.

4. It’s not just the economy; voters are tired of the chaos, the DOGEing, the Signal-group war planning, and the Measle-worshipping too… and it’s only 100 days in.

WHAT DO WE DO WITH THIS?

Full disclosure: for weeks, I have believed that 2026 would be the biggest Democratic election year in our lifetimes. I’m frustrated with stick-in-the-mud Dem establishment types who are moping around and talking about barely eaking out a seat or two.

I can tell you that all elections in the country now are linked to national winds (sorry, Tip O’Neill - no longer are all politics local). That wind is whispering that we should be targeting 60+ House seats and expanding the Senate map to knock off Senators like Steve Daines. This polling data supports my claim. However, it won’t happen simply by letting it happen. Democrats need to go on full attack mode, and they need to offer bold alternatives to the real pain that Trump and all of his House and Senate MAGA acolytes are going to cause people. I was struck by the Navigator focus group answers from women in PA, and I think they serve as good reminders of what Democrats need to address.

Lastly, I ask you to put your arms around these independent voters. No one who wants to win an election in 2026 should be saying “they get what they voted for.” I don’t care if you do that to Elon Musk's admirers, but don’t do it to these people. They voted for something they thought would be better, and it’s our job to give it to them.

Here’s the entire Navigator poll if you don’t have anything better to do than read polls all night.